Updated on: October 28, 2024

Table of contents

• Planted area of corn vs soybeans per state
• The U.S. national level corn conditions
• The U.S. state level corn percentage rated as "Good and Excellent"
• National yield estimate
• Yield forecasts by states
• Corn yield predicitions based on crop conditions: Model performance metrics
• The U.S. corn stage progress

5-Minute Takeaways:
• The predictive power of crop conditions for corn yield is already high by Week 29, which coincides with the silking stage. A marginal accuracy improvement of 7% is reached by Week 34.
• States with high variability in historical trend yields and large shares in total production require robust predictive models. Notably, corn crop conditions provide little predictive information for North Dakota.
• Crop conditions offer moderate yield prediction power for Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa; however, these states show relatively low historical yield volatility. On average, measured crop conditions account for around 60% of yield variation around the trend in these states.

Planted area of corn vs soybeans per state

The U.S. national level corn conditions

The U.S. state level corn percentage rated as "Good and Excellent"

National yield estimate

Yield forecasts by states

Corn yield predicitions based on crop conditions: Model performance metrics

When looking at the yield model performance, the broad context questions to consider are:
• Which regions have historically the most volatile yields?
• How important are these region in the "total pie" of production?
• In this context we examine: How much volatility do models capture?

The U.S. corn stage progress